First day – 15 Cr.
Weekend – 46-47 Cr.
If wom is good to very good ,
Lifetime – 120 cr +.Superhit/BB.
If wom is average ,
Lifetime will be 85- 90 Cr.Hit
Rowdy Rathore is heading for a huge opening when it opens on Friday it could even turn out to be the best opening weekend of the year. The single screen advance which opened on Monday was excellent across the country and the film will screen on around 2700 screens
The biggest opening weekends (1st 3 days) this year have been Agneepath (45.50 crore nett) and Housefull 2 (42 crore nett) and Rowdy Rathore has chances to beat both of these two films. The biggest Akshay Kumar openers are Housefull 2 and Tees Maar Khan (36.50 crore nett).
The 50 crore nett weekend is the number to crack but its never been done without a major holiday (Bodyguard – Eid, Ra.One – Diwali) so it may be out of reach for Rowdy Rathore. The biggest non holiday opening weekend is Ready at 42.25 crore nett which was released in the same week as Rowdy rathore last year.
Rowdy Rathore has fetched extraordinary prices all over India and has been sold in most circuits across the country.
There have been five big hits this year in the form of Agneepath, Housefull 2, Kahaani, Vicky Donor and Ishaqzaade. The latter is still in the middle of its run while the other have finished or close to finishing their runs. The multiplex contribution from the six major chains (PVR, Big, Inox, Cinemax, Fame and Fun) to the all India business is as follows.
47.75 cr against 120.25 cr total business
Contribution – 39.71%
46.75 cr against 112.75 cr total business
31.50 cr against 58 cr total business
Contribution – 54.31%
Rowdy Rathore Business, Economics, Predictions, Collections & Box Office Analysis::
With only 6 days left for release for Rowdy Rathore, we can easily say that this is the right time for prediction of Rowdy Rathore Box Office Collections. At the moment most of the business aspects and release pros & cons are clear in our mind. Still predicting has become tougher day by day, as anything can happen after film releases. Finally Junta Janardhan is the boss for making a film success. Though it is certain that with good word or mouth, publicity, positive user reviews a film can attain success easily. So, lets start the business economics of Rowdy Rathore.
Film Cost – As informed by the makers cost of Rowdy Rathore is Rs 55 crore (Promotion & Marketing included).
Amount Recovered Pre-Release – Rs 35 crore from Satellite Rights. Another 7 crore is recovered from Music and other rights. So, a total of 42 crore is already recovered before the release of the film.
Amount need to recoverd by the makers to earn profit. After the deduction of amount recovered from Satellite, Music and other rights, makers of Rowdy Rathore needs only another 13 crores to be recovered from India Theatricals and overseas, which can be easily achieved in the first 2-3 days of release itself.
Potential of Rowdy Rathore at the Box Office (Theatrical) – Rowdy Rathore is releasing with a humongous screen count of 2600-2800 at the Box Office India. Also, it is solo release and without any competition. Hence, potential is immense.
It is to be the biggest or atleast second biggest release all India after Ra.One. Rowdy Rathore has the potential of earning 27-28 crore nett in a single day itself, if got 100% occupancy. Realistically since, it is releasing on normal working day, it should get a opening of 60-70% on average across all India and that will be a bumper opening. Hence, first day collection should be 15-17 crore nett mark, followed a 17-18 crore nett on Saturday and further 20+ crore nett mark on Sunday. But, this can only happen with good vibe and positive reports. No doubt Akshay Kumar is riding high on success after Housefull 2 success and he will pull audience to the theatres for the first 2-3 days.
Opening Weekend Prediction.
If Accepted – 48-50+ crore nett all India.
If Average – 40-45 crore nett all India.
If Rejected – Below 40 crore nett all India.
Hence, whatever the scenario of Rowdy Rathore, makers are definite to make profits in the first weekend itself, as RR is made on controlled budget and huge Satellite Recovery already.
Opening Week Prediction.
If Accepted – 75+ cr nett.
If Average – 65-70 cr nett.
If Rejected – Below 60 cr nett.
If Accepted – 115-140 cr nett.
If Average – 90-115 cr nett.
If Rejected – Below 90 cr nett.
Disaster – Below 60 cr nett.
Box Office Verdict (HIT, Super HIT, Blockbuster or Flop). Since, Rowdy Rathore is bound to make profits for makers as Satellite Rights are sold for a huge amount. Only for trade pundits and Box Office Verdict it is necessary to know whether it will be HIT, Flop or Blockbuster. Otherwise Rowdy Rathore is already a profitable venture.
Rowdy Rathore needs 55 crore from theatres to be theatrical HIT. Lets assume it will easily earn around 12-13 crore (Distributor Share) from overseas. Hence, it needs only another 42-43 crore to be recovered from domestic market. So, to earn 42-43 crore distributor share (minus Tax, Theatre Rentals), Rowdy Rathore should earn around 80-85 crore nett all India to be Theatrical HIT and profitable for distributors all India, which should easily be acheived in the first week itself. After that all are profits.
How much Rowdy Rathore needs to earn at Box Office India (Theatres)? Mentioned Below –
ATBB (All Time Blockbuster) – 150cr nett+.
Blockbuster – 130-150 cr nett.
Super HIT – 110-130 cr nett.
HIT – 90-110 cr nett.
Success – 80 – 90 cr
Average – 70-80 cr nett.
Flop – Below 60 cr nett.
According to Concise Boxoffice , film will do around 15 cr day 1 , 46-48 cr weekend & over 110 cr lifetime making it a SuperHIT !!
ISHAQZAADE – 42.5 CR . HIT
JANNAT 2 – 42.26 CR . Above Average
Department – 12.77 cr . Disaster
Dangerous ishq – 7 cr . Flop
Tezz – 15 cr . Disaster
Avengers – 43 cr . HIT/SUPERHIT
Vicky Donor – 38 cr . Super Hit
Housefull 2 – 113 cr approx . Super Hit
Hate Story – 11 cr . Average.
Men In Black 3 had a good weekend as it collected around 11 crore nett in its first weekend. It is the sixth highest Hollywood opening weekend after 2012, Mission Impossible 4, The Avengers, Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 and Avatar.
The film did very well in English and decent business in its dubbed format. Men In Black 3 will do well to get to around 25 crore lifetime nett business as the flow of hindi films will start this week with Rowdy Rathor.
A 25 crore nett final total will put it amongst the top ten grossers of Hollywood in India.
Ishaqzaade Has Strong Third Weekend
Ishaqzaade had a strong third weekend collecting around 4.25 crore nett and taking its seventeen day business to around 42 crore nett. The film collected 1 crore nett on Friday, 1.50 crore nett on Saturday and 1.75 crore nett on Sunday.
Kahaani had grossed 5.50 crore nett in its third weekend while Vicky Donor grossed around 3.75 crore nett. The top third weekend collection was the 8 crore nett of Housefull 2.
Ishaqzaade will have the fourth best third week collections of 2012 and have business in the range of 44.5-45 crore nett in three weeks.